Global Meat Supply Faces Severe Shortage and Production Crisis

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Cattle Stocks Decline Across Major Beef-Producing Countries

The world’s top three beef producers, Brazil, the US, and China, are experiencing declining cattle stocks due to rising input costs, droughts, and biological factors. This decline has led to increased prices for beef in China, where it is a staple food item.

According to recent estimates, Brazil’s total herd of cattle decreased by 8% from last year, with the US seeing a historic low of 86.2 million cattle and calves on farms as of January 1, 2026. In China, the number of cattle has dropped by 14% from last year.

The decline in domestic production is attributed to various factors, including import restrictions imposed by major markets such as China and the European Union. Brazil’s beef exports have been affected by these restrictions, leading to a decrease in its cattle head count.

In the US, droughts have impacted 60% of the country’s cattle-rearing area, resulting in increased feed costs. The meat industry also relies heavily on immigrant workers, but high prices do not automatically lead to an increase in production.

Experts note that cattle production is constrained by biological supply cycles, which can take a couple of years for producers to respond to market signals and expand production. As a result, the decline in cattle stocks has significant implications for global meat supplies and prices.

The USDA predicts a 2% decline in Brazil’s beef production, a 5% fall in exports, and a 4% decrease in US beef production in 2026. China’s total beef supply is projected to be 12% lower than last year.

Source: Al Jazeera