US Attack on Iran: Potential Global Consequences and Fallout

US-Iran Tensions Escalate Amid Accumulation of Military Forces

The United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East, with the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and supporting warplanes. This move has heightened tensions between the two countries, with Washington’s reliance on gunboat diplomacy contributing to the risk of war.

In response to recent protests in Iran, US President Donald Trump announced plans to remove Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power. The administration has also deployed additional air defense assets, including THAAD and Patriot missile systems, across the region.

The US has made several demands as a condition for a favorable agreement with Iran, including the dismantling of its nuclear enrichment program and ballistic missile capabilities. However, Iranian officials have expressed deep distrust of negotiations with the US, citing civilian nuclear capability and missile capabilities as “red lines.”

Tehran interprets the US’s maximum demands as a potential threat to regime change, which could lead to an “existential threat” to the Islamic Republic. The impact of any US military action against Iran would depend on the attack’s type, scale, and targets, potentially triggering a severe crisis in Iran, across the region, and globally.

The Iranian government has stated that it will not compromise on its nuclear capabilities or regional influence. Trump favors surgical and targeted military operations, which could lead to significant damage to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military bases, Basij units, and police stations.

Any US effort to impose regime change through military means is likely to result in dangerous outcomes domestically and regionally. The Iranian people may rally behind the flag in response to an attack, rejecting regime change due to concerns about state collapse, lack of a credible moderate opposition, and strong sociopolitical cohesion within Iran.

Source: Al Jazeera